Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
