Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a automatic firearm engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the situation will not change more in its favour in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
